The Alsup Aftermath

The presentations from the Climate Science tutorial last month have all been posted (links below), and Myles Allen (the first presenter for the plaintiffs) gives his impression of the events.


Guest Commentary by Myles Allen

A few weeks ago, I had an unusual — and challenging — assignment: providing a one-hour “tutorial” on the basic science of human-induced climate change to a Federal District Court in San Francisco. Judge William Alsup had requested this tutorial to bring him up to speed on the fundamental science before proceedings begin in earnest in a case brought by the cities of San Francisco and Oakland, on behalf of the people of California, against a group of major fossil fuel companies, addressing the costs of climate change caused, they argue, by products those companies have sold.

The format was straightforward — two hours each for the plaintiffs and the defendants, and the judge had provided us with a series of questions on the essential physics that he wanted addressed, as well as requesting a timeline of how our understanding of climate change has evolved over the past 150 years. My presentation was followed by Professors Gary Griggs, showing detailed projections of sea-level rise and its impacts on California, and Don Wuebbles, presenting key findings from the latest US National Climate Science Special Report (also speaking for the plaintiffs). Between Gary and Don, the Court heard from Theodore Boutrous, a lawyer speaking on behalf of Chevron, one of the defendants.

The case was fairly widely covered, (here’s an example) and most of the attention was, understandably, on what the oil companies had to say: the fact that Gary, Don and I agreed with the IPCC was hardly ever likely to be newsworthy. But I’ve had a few requests since about what I presented — including from some students who spotted that a carefully compressed summary of climate change science might be quite handy revision material. So, with exam season nearly upon us, here it is — or at least, here is what I would have presented if I’d got through it all: in preparing this material, I had completely failed to anticipate the number and depth of Judge Alsup’s questions, so we only got as far as the Charney Report.

Prior to the hearing, Andrew Dessler on Twitter, Gavin Schmidt at RealClimate and Oliver Milman at the Guardian all had a crack at the judge’s questions:

I was definitely more ambitious and I go into more detail than Gavin, Andrew and Oliver on how attribution works, partly because that’s what I do, but also because just telling the judge “the IPCC says the warming is pretty much all human-induced and 80% of that is CO2” would have been a bit circular, having been involved myself in those IPCC assessments since the 1990s.

My contribution had its ups and downs — a low point was definitely when Judge Alsup declared “your chart sucks” in response to a powerpoint slide (right) which showed an artist’s impression of the Nimbus 4 satellite at the expense of a graph of how the spectrum of outgoing long wave radiation changed in response to rising greenhouse gases between 1970 and 1997. Frustratingly, the chart he wanted (from John Harries’ 2001 paper) was hidden under the pretty picture, but we were already late and I chickened out of breaking open the powerpoint to move figures around in a live courtroom. But the high point came just a few seconds later, when he asked “so, how much did the temperatures [of carbon dioxide molecules emitting energy to space in those critical wavelengths of the infrared] fall over those 27 years?” — showing that, after only half-an-hour, and despite my obscure charts, he had already got a better grasp of the basic mechanism of the enhanced greenhouse effect than many.

I’ve restored that spectrum to its rightful place in the version below, as well as adding some more material on molecular dipoles at the beginning, since Judge Alsup (and others since) had questions about how it was that carbon dioxide molecules could act on infrared radiation over a much larger volume than the molecules themselves actually occupy. I’ve also added some more material later on to address other questions that came up. The material I actually covered at the time is all available on the court record.

The edited presentation runs for just under 45 minutes, and I’ve broken it up into five segments. I’ve also put up the powerpoint in case you want to use some of the graphics in your own teaching. I hope it’s useful.


Tutorial: The basic science of human-induced climate change

Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5

Presentation: The basic science of human-induced climate change

This is an embedded Microsoft Office presentation, powered by Office Online.

Text adapted from original post at ECI with permission.

Scott Steen to Depart American Forests

April 24th, 2018|Tags: |0 Comments

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President & Chief Executive Officer
Heads to American Physiological Society

Steen at the Screen Actors Guild Awards on behalf of American Forests in 2016.

After nearly eight years of leadership at American Forests, Scott Steen, president and chief executive officer announced that he will be leaving the organization in July to become executive director at the American Physiological Society. During his tenure, Steen focused on developing a stronger scientific foundation for the organization’s efforts, expanding public understanding of the importance of forests for human life, and emphasizing stewardship and transparency.

“I will remember my time at American Forests as a high point in my career,” Steen said. “Not only have I gotten to do work that is deeply meaningful and important for the health of the planet, I have had the opportunity to do it with an amazing group of people, including an exceptionally supportive, wise and courageous board, and an incredibly talented staff team.”

American Forests Board Chair Bruce Lisman noted that during Steen’s tenure, the organization tripled its membership, launched several new, high profile initiatives, and significantly increased operating revenue. “Scott has built more capacity for greater accomplishments than we ever imagined,” Lisman said. “We’ve planted a lot of trees during his tenure, but it’s the impact that really matters – saving wildlife, cleaning water, restoring urban canopy, and repairing damaged forests. He’s done so much for American Forests, and he’s done it with style and good humor. I value his leadership and his friendship.”

Board Vice Chair Richard Kabat added, “Scott leaves the organization with a highly capable management team, a solid financial base and a staff of dedicated professionals continuing the process of leading critically important initiatives and policy-making at the highest levels.”

Past Board Chair Ann Nichols pointed to the organizational strength, financial stability and improved program focus that Scott brought to American Forests. “These are the components of his legacy,” she said. “His leadership has changed American Forests’ future for the better and built a solid foundation on which to grow.”

Jonathan Silver, like Lisman, returned as a board member during Steen’s term. Having served a decade earlier as board chair, Silver echoed the thoughts of others in crediting Scott with turning the organization around. “The American Forests we know today would not exist without Scott. Scott took over an old and venerable, but troubled, organization and, in his time there, turned it into a major voice for forest conservation. The organization, and the country, are better for his leadership.”

Board Member Zim Boulos added, “Scott is a true visionary. He inspired and challenged the board and his staff in many ways.”

During his seven-plus years, Steen has been passionate about expanding public awareness for both the organization and the cause. During this time, American Forests has received media coverage in such outlets as The New York Times, USA Today, The Washington Post, NatGeo Weekend, NPR, and many others.

Its website traffic has more than doubled and the organization now has more than a quarter-million social media followers. The organization has also expanded public awareness through several innovative partnerships, including with actor Ryan Reynolds (with Eddie Bauer), the Super Bowl (with Verizon), and the Screen Actors Guild Awards.

Past Board Chair Lynda Webster commented, “American Forests is losing an extraordinary leader who made transformational changes at a pivotal point in its history. Scott built an exceptional team and together they have taken the organization to places beyond what I imagined.”

Steen will assume his new role at the American Physiological Society in July. Established in 1887, APS is a global, multidisciplinary association of scientists focused on solving major problems affecting life and health. The Society represents more than 10,500 members and publishes 15 peer-reviewed journals with a worldwide readership.

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American Forests and Alcoa Foundation Announce 2018 Grant Awards

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A Prothonotary Warbler in Patoka River National Wildlife Refuge. Credit: USFWS Midwest

Washington, D.C. (April 23, 2018) — American Forests and Alcoa Foundation announce nine new grant recipients in year two of a three-year partnership to enhance biodiversity and combat climate change in key areas across the globe.

Newly funded projects will restore at-risk tree species and help cities address climate change by engaging 4,500 volunteers in tree plantings and other forest restoration activities in 13 locations, such as:

In Poços de Caldas, Minas Gerais, BRA, Associação Poços Sustentável will improve a 1.8-acre urban greenspace by planting 30 different Atlantic Forest tree species. The site currently has exposed soil and is being impacted by erosion. Restoration will stabilize the soil, reduce urban heat island effect by providing shade and thermal comfort, and demonstrate the benefits and beauty of landscaping with native species.

In Madrid and communities along Spain’s northwest coast, Ecoherencia will engage more than 400 volunteers in tree planting projects over two years. These projects will help forests close to communities recover from recent wildfires, and allow for continued restoration of the holm oak in Sierra de Guadarrama National Park. The holm oak is the national tree of Spain, but has been overtaken by invasive trees in areas of the Park.

In Indiana, USA, Friends of Patoka River National Wildlife Refuge and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service will restore 55 acres of bottomland hardwood forest on former agricultural land in Patoka River National Wildlife Refuge. A variety of oak and hickory species will be planted that will benefit federal and state wildlife species of concern including evening, Indiana, and long-eared bats, barn and short-eared owls, and the copperbelly water snake.

In Washington and Oregon, USA, the U.S. Forest Service will collect whitebark pine seed from disease-resistant trees and use them to grow tree seedlings needed for future forest restoration. Whitebark pine is endangered in Canada and a candidate for Endangered Species Act protection in the United States, due to threats including a non-native fungal disease (whitepine blister rust), wildfire and climate change. Availability of disease-resistant whitebark pine seedlings is a key limiting factor to range-wide recovery.

These and other new projects add to ongoing restoration work previously funded through the American Forests and Alcoa Foundation Partnership in Iceland, Quebec, Canada and Pennsylvania, USA. Early efforts in 2018 planted 75,000 trees over 175 acres with the help of 2,500 volunteers.

“Alcoa Foundation believes that the best chance we have of progressing towards a healthier environment is through partnership and collaboration, and our program with American Forests demonstrates this powerfully,” said Rosa García Pineiro, Alcoa Foundation President and Sustainability Vice President. “We are excited to build on the momentum of the first year of this program to continue the important work of environmental restoration in communities around the world.”

Since 2011, Alcoa Foundation and American Forests have worked together to enhance and protect forests in 14 countries, restoring wildlife habitat and combating climate change by utilizing forests to augment carbon storage and purify water and air. Through the dedication of Alcoa employees, local communities and partners, more than 1.6 million trees have been planted.

“Our partnership with the Alcoa Foundation exemplifies the commitment and collaboration we need to work toward natural, high impact climate change solutions,” said Scott Steen, president & CEO of American Forests. “These newly funded projects in year two of our current three-year partnership address a wide range of the most pressing environmental challenges of our time. Alcoa is serious about making a difference.”

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ABOUT AMERICAN FORESTS

American Forests inspires and advances the conservation of forests, which are essential to life. We do this by protecting and restoring threatened forest ecosystems, promoting and expanding urban forests, and increasing understanding of the importance of forests. Founded in 1875, American Forests is the oldest national nonprofit conservation organization in the country and has served as a catalyst for many key milestones in the conservation movement, including the founding of the U.S. Forest Service, the national forest system and thousands of forest ecosystem restoration projects and public education efforts. Since 1990, American Forests has planted more than 50 million trees in all 50 states and nearly 50 countries, resulting in cleaner air and drinking water, restored habitat for wildlife and fish, and the removal of millions of tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

ABOUT ALCOA FOUNDATION

Alcoa Foundation’s predecessor, currently known as Legacy Alcoa Foundation (and formerly known as Alcoa Foundation), was founded in 1952 as one of the few endowed corporate foundations in the United States. As a result of the separation of Alcoa Inc. into Alcoa Corporation and Arconic Inc. in November 2016, two new foundations were formed, into which the assets of Legacy Alcoa Foundation were transferred. One of the newly formed foundations, known now as Alcoa Foundation, is the foundation associated with Alcoa Corporation. Today, Alcoa Foundation invests where Alcoa Corporation has a presence, providing grants that contribute to environmental excellence around the world, particularly in the areas of biodiversity conservation and climate change research. Learn more at alcoafoundation.com  and follow @AlcoaFoundation on Twitter.

MEDIA CONTACT

Lea Sloan | Vice President of Communications | 202.370.4509 (direct) | 202.330.3253 (mobile) | lsloan@americanforests.org

The post American Forests and Alcoa Foundation Announce 2018 Grant Awards appeared first on American Forests.

What’s Hot In Climate Change, Earth Day 2018

Here we are again, another fabulous Earth Day, as if every day wasn’t “Earth Day”.  Every year it seems more and more ridiculous, like tidying your house while it’s on fire.  It’s become a panacea for many, an opportunity for folks to feel like they’re doing something to ease their conscious, when in reality it’s akin to doing almost nothing.  Oh well, at least it might raise awareness in some to learn and do more. Along those lines, here are some important stories from around the web that do matter.  We start with dueling studies, one says the most accurate climate models are predicting the direst outcomes, while another says that the worst-case climate scenarios are not credible.  We follow that up with some more Read More …

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Forest Digest: April 22, 2018

April 22nd, 2018|Tags: , , , , |0 Comments

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Credit: Jeff D. Muth

Check out what’s happened this week in forestry news!

Novelist Richard Powers Finds New Stories Deep In Old Growth Forests – NPR

Richard Powers’ latest book, “The Overstory,” focuses on the lives of nine people who are inspired by their reverence for trees to save old-growth forests from destruction — with unforeseen consequences. Powers did extensive research to include factual details about the importance of trees and forests to the environment.

‘Magical’ mushroom mix to boost regrowth of lost Scottish forestsThe Guardian

In a project run by Trees for Life, a special mix of mushroom spores is being used to help restore the Great Caledonian Forest in the Scottish highlands. Mycorrhizal fungi will be added to the roots of saplings planned for planting this year, with the possibility of introducing this practice in the tree nursery as well.

Human Footprint Devastating Wildlife: An Article For Earth Day – moderndiplomacy

This series from Science describes the harmful impact of modern human presence on wildlife. One article discusses the negative effect of the human footprint on animal movement, another is about the negative impact that managed honeybees have on wildflowers and wild honeybees, and the final piece assesses the influence of plastic waste on disease in reef-building corals.

How Big Forests Solve Global ProblemsThe New York Times

Intact forests landscapes are able to maintain their native plant and animal life, and biophysical processes. This gives them the ability to help manage climate change by absorbing carbon emissions in large amounts. But that’s not the only reason intact forests are important: They also influence cultural diversity, and language in particular!

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American Forests Responds: Jim Hubbard USDA Under Secretary Nomination

April 19th, 2018|Tags: , |0 Comments

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American Forests strongly supports the nomination of Jim Hubbard to Under Secretary of Agriculture for Natural Resources and Environment.

Jim Hubbard is an outstanding leader whose experience and perspective contribute to his invaluable guidance and sound judgement on managing our natural resources and environment. Jim is a former board member at American Forests, the oldest conservation organization in the country and a longtime nonprofit partner of the Forest Service, so we speak from a place of experience in our appreciation for Jim’s integrity and deep knowledge of the challenges facing the country’s forest assets and solutions that can help benefit the environment and the economy.

The post American Forests Responds: Jim Hubbard USDA Under Secretary Nomination appeared first on American Forests.

A Legacy of Success

April 18th, 2018|0 Comments

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By Eric Sprague, Director of Forest Conservation

During a 1987 census in north-central Michigan, wildlife biologists were able to hear the Kirtland’s warbler song only 167 times. (Editor’s Note: Hear it in the Instagram post in this article.) This marked a low point for the bird’s population. It had been declining since 1967, when it was among the first 75 wildlife species to gain protections under the precursor to the Endangered Species Act (ESA). Today, due to a unique conservation story, the Kirtland’s warbler is poised to be the first songbird ever delisted.

The Kirtland’s warbler has highly specialized breeding habitat requirements: young, dense and expansive jack pine forest. Natural, low-intensity fires historically created patches of this young forest. Wildfires burned the bigger, older trees and cleared the understory to create space for jack pine seeds to thrive. But, modern fire suppression policies have interrupted this cycle — no fire has meant no young trees, and no young Kirtland’s warblers.

In absence of fire, the Michigan Department of Natural Resources (DNR), U.S. Forest Service and other land managers have been working with the local forest industry to cut older jack pine stands and then replant young jack pine across the breeding range of the warbler. The forest management mimics that effects of fire while also providing funding for the conservation effort and supporting local jobs. The proceeds from the state-sponsored timber sales are pooled into a restoration fund and used to support the overall conservation effort.

The vulnerability of Kirtland’s warblers, and their unique dependence on jack pine forests, had been on American Forests’ radar since before 1980. When our American ReLeaf program was launched in 1990, American Forests began investing in bringing back the Kirtland’s warbler by restoring its habitat. In fact, our first-ever project was to restore jack pine on the AuSable State Forest in Michigan. Since then, American Forests has planted more than 4.6 million jack pines on more than 4,200 acres.

This nationally unique public-private restoration effort has brought the Kirtland’s warbler population back from the brink. The current population is now over 2,000 pairs, more than double the recovery goal. Last week, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service proposed to remove the species from the federal Endangered Species List.

This is a great achievement for the Kirtland’s warbler, but also underscores the importance of the ESA. The ESA has kept 98% of listed species from going extinct. These protections give state, federal and private partners the space to develop complex restoration strategies.

Of course, challenges still remain for the Kirtland’s warbler. Because large scale reintroduction of wildfire is not reasonable, forest management will be required to continually create new breeding habitat every year.

The jack pine timber market has enhanced the conservation effort, but it isn’t a silver bullet. Jack pine prices can fluctuate and the tree is not as sought after as other species like red pine. In addition to habitat needs, the conservation effort supports brown-headed cowbird control. Cowbirds lay their eggs in Kirtland’s warbler nests, and the cowbirds then outcompete warbler nestlings for food.

To ensure the ultimate success of the Kirtland’s warbler, American Forests and the Michigan DNR are in the second year of a five-year partnership that will plant 5 million jack pine trees on more than 3,000 acres of managed state forest land. The tree planting will create the next young forests for the warbler. The partnership helps to fill funding gaps and ensure that the species will remain secure.

Our investment is focused on future habitat needs too. Since 1951, 98 percent of all singing males have been found in Michigan. However, as the population grows, the Kirtland’s warbler is slowly expanding its range into northern Michigan, Wisconsin and Ontario. As temperatures and precipitation changes due to climate change, the need for jack pine restoration will also grow. American Forests is currently partnering with Simcoe County, Ontario, and the Canadian Wildlife Service to implement the first-ever Kirtland’s warbler habitat restoration in Canada.

The post A Legacy of Success appeared first on American Forests.

The Silurian Hypothesis

One of the benefits of working for NASA is that the enormous range of science the agency covers – from satellite records for the present day, to exoplanet climates, from early Mars and deep time on Earth to the far future – and the opportunity to think ‘big’. This week sees the publication of a paper I wrote with Adam Frank that we hope might provoke some ‘big’ thinking.

The Silurian Hypothesis (preprint) is the idea if industrial civilization had arisen on Earth prior to the existence of hominids, what traces would be left that could be detectable now? As a starting point, we explore what the traces of the Anthropocene will be in millions of years – carbon isotope changes, global warming, increased sedimentation, spikes in heavy metal concentrations, plastics and more – and then look at previous examples of similar events in the geological record. What is unique about our presence on Earth and what might be common to any industrial civilization? Can we rule out similar causes?


(Dino Street (University of Rochester illustration/Michael Osadciw)

Adam had a nice piece in the Atlantic and there is also a good write up on Motherboard.

The naming of this idea comes from a 1970 Dr. Who episode where an ancient race of reptilians (“Silurians”) who had put themselves in hibernation to avoid a global catastrophe were awakened by experimental nuclear physics experiments. (I tried to find ‘prior art’ on pre-human terrestrial civilization that wasn’t based on notions of panspermia or ancient astronauts, but I haven’t yet been successful – anyone?). Needless(?) to say, we aren’t proposing any such occurrence (not least because the Silurian period is too early for the development of complex life on land).

The ideas in the paper lead naturally to many lines of speculation, some of which are relevant to us today, and some of which are just interesting (to us at least). For instance, given that the more sustainable a civilization is, the smaller its geophysical footprint might be, what does that imply for the detectability of long-term civilizations? Does the onset of ocean anoxia at the end of many of these events suggest a possibility of cycle where the collapse of one civilization provides the seeds (fossil fuels) for the next?

The whole idea is so intriguing that I wanted to do more with it than is possible in a journal article. Other scientists have occasionally dabbled in science-fiction (notably Carl Sagan and Fred Hoyle) and so, following their lead, I wrote a short story “Under the Sun” about the consequences for finding such a signal.

Literary as well as scientific criticism welcomed!

References


  1. G.A. Schmidt, and A. Frank, “The Silurian hypothesis: would it be possible to detect an industrial civilization in the geological record?”, International Journal of Astrobiology, pp. 1-9, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1473550418000095

Forest Digest: April 15, 2018

April 15th, 2018|Tags: , , , , |0 Comments

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Credit: Chris Drumm via rootsrated.com | Pinterest

Check out what’s happened this week in forestry news!

That Python in the Pet Store? It May Have Been Snatched From the WildThe New York Times

The popularity of exotic reptiles and amphibians as pets has created an enormous illegal trade. Most of the reptiles sold as pets are said to have been bred in captivity – however, depending on the species, many of those reptiles were likely illegally captured in the wild.

Animal images used in marketing may skew public perception about their survival risksScience Daily

A recent international study reveals that animals such as tigers, lions and polar bears are at a high risk of extinction because the public believes their popularity guarantees their survival. Since these popular animals are frequently used in marketing campaigns, the public creates the misconception that these animals aren’t endangered.

Using virtual reality to plot urban green spacesPhys.org

Researchers at NC State University used immersive virtual reality (IVR) to test perceptions of green enclosures set in a downtown plaza and a city park, manipulating the vegetation to create different environments. This technology will allow landscape designers to experiment with designing urban landscapes and people’s perception of them without having to plant trees.

How Norwegian trees have revealed the story of Germany’s biggest WWII battleshipThe Local

Tree experts used tree ring measurements from forests along the northern coast of Norway to show how the Germans were able to avoid the destruction of their largest battleship, the Tirpitz, for years during World War II.

Infrastructure improvements for national forest system trails announcedNooga.com

The trail maintenance scheduled for 15 priority areas in the Southern Appalachian region is expected to address the needed infrastructure work, so that trails managed by the USDA Forest Service can be enjoyed by the general public and trail enthusiasts.

Tiny Gold Monkeys and Pumas Are Getting Their Own HighwayNational Geographic

A new wildlife corridor is being planned to allow species to move out of the now-isolated Reserva Biológica União in Brazil. This will give the endangered and threatened species, such as the golden lion tamarin, the opportunity to repopulate and become genetically diverse in a larger environment. The land bridge will lead to a region north of the reserve, which is in the process of being reforested with native flora.

The post Forest Digest: April 15, 2018 appeared first on American Forests.

Flood Control in South Houston…

Note from The Climate Advisor:  This article is republished with permission from the Texas Tribune.  The photo below shows a retention pond under construction.  I have seen the pond and it’s done. This pond is just one small part of the whole complex.  It’s very nice, with lots of people from the neighborhood out walking, running and biking around the old golf course in the evenings.  Clear Lake had minimal flooding during Harvey, maybe this system of canals and retention ponds helped.   In search of a flood fix, one Houston community turned to a golf course By Katie Riordan, The Texas Tribune Nov. 17, 2017 HOUSTON — In 50 years living in Clear Lake City, Spyros Varsos had never seen the floodwater get so high. During a Read More …

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